El Niño 2026-27 so far
The measured RONI for Jul-Sep 2026 is +1.69 °C. That is the 2nd highest for that season in 77 years since 1950, behind only 1997 at +1.84 °C.
Comparing the 2026-27 event with earlier strong El Niños
Daily RONI readings come from CPC, which adds a new season each month.
Strong El Niño events since 1950
| Winter | RONI, Jul-Sep | Peak RONI | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | +1.69 | +1.69 | |
| 1957-58 | +1.05 | +1.89 | Strong |
| 1965-66 | +1.49 | +1.99 | Strong |
| 1972-73 | +1.40 | +1.97 | Strong |
| 1982-83 | +1.14 | +2.40 | Very strong |
| 1991-92 | +0.83 | +2.12 | Very strong |
| 1997-98 | +1.84 | +2.28 | Very strong |
| 2015-16 | +1.54 | +2.25 | Very strong |
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What makes a super El Niño
'Super El Niño' is shorthand used by forecasters and in news reports, not an official classification. It usually means a very strong event, which CPC defines as three or more overlapping seasons at +2.0 or above. By RONI, the strongest on record since 1950 is 1982-83 at +2.4, while the older ONI index peaked at +2.6 in 2015-16. CPC gave a 75% chance, as of September 10, 2026, that October-December 2026 reaches +2.5, a level above every event since 1950.
What strong El Niño winters brought
Precipitation, snowfall, and temperature records for every past strong El Niño winter are kept across the El Niño hub and its state pages.