Can you see the northern lights in Arizona tonight?
Unlikely: Kp 1.33 at 2:21 PM MST falls short of the Kp 9 or so that Arizona's northern horizon requires.
as of
Kp now
1.33
Arizona needs
Kp 9
Verdict
No chance
Sky tonight
Clear, 2% cloud
Moon tonight
40% lit, last quarter
Nautical darkness
Darkness 7:03 PM to 5:31 AM
Kp from NOAA SWPC estimated planetary K index. The NWS FGZ gridded forecast provides cloud cover for Kaibab National Forest, Jacob Lake.
At Kaibab National Forest, Jacob Lake, nautical darkness begins at 7:03 PM and holds until 5:31 AM MST. Tonight's moon, in its last quarter phase, shows 40 percent lit. The sun and moon positions, computed for the date and the viewing spot, supply both numbers, and no forecast plays a part.
What is Kp?
A 0-9 scale called Kp rates the current disturbance of Earth's magnetic field. Its name comes from planetarische Kennziffer, German for planetary index. Thirteen observatories worldwide take the measurements. Higher values mean the aurora reaches further south. Most of the northern US needs a Kp of 5 or higher, while northern Alaska sees it at Kp 0. Full Kp guide.
Why Arizona needs Kp 9
Because the aurora follows the magnetic field rather than the equator, geomagnetic latitude matters more than map latitude. At Arizona's northern edge, the reading is 44.0° geomagnetic; the oval only draws level with that latitude at about Kp 9, and the Kp number already includes roughly 5 degrees of cushion, because the high-altitude aurora hangs low on the horizon.
Where to watch from in Arizona
All three spots in Arizona can differ in cloud cover, so all three are worth a look. Kaibab National Forest, Jacob Lake looks clearest tonight, at 2% cover.
| Spot | Cloud tonight | Clearest hour | Nearest town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab National Forest, Jacob Lake | 2% Clear | 9:00 PM MST | Fredonia |
| Sunset Crater Volcano | 2% Clear | 12:00 AM MST | Timberline-Fernwood |
| Lake Powell, Wahweap | 2% Clear | 9:00 PM MST | Page |
Aurora hunters in Arizona must wait for a NOAA G5 extreme storm, Kp 9, the kind that arrives about four days per solar cycle. When it does, Kaibab National Forest near Fredonia offers dark sky. Sunset Crater Volcano near Timberline-Fernwood is another Arizona spot, close to open terrain. Lake Powell near Page is a third.
Can the northern lights reach Flagstaff, Phoenix and Tucson tonight?
| City | Kp needed | Right now |
|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | n/a | No chance |
| Phoenix | n/a | No chance |
| Tucson | n/a | No chance |
Each city's Kp value comes from its own coordinates and geomagnetic latitude, so the further south a city is in the state, the higher the Kp it needs.
Cloud cover, averaged over tonight's viewing window for each location, comes from NWS gridded forecasts.
Was there aurora last night in Arizona?
The night of October 3 topped out at Kp 3.00, short of the 9 Arizona needs, so the aurora stayed out of range.
The most recent night in range was May 10, 2024, when the night's highest Kp reached 9.00.
0 nights so far in 2026 have been in range for Arizona, against a yearly average of 0.1 across the complete years since 1994. The year's highest night Kp so far is 8.67, set on January 19, 2026.
Nights in range by year in Arizona
| Year | Nights in range | Highest Kp | Peak date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 2026 is not over | 0 | 8.67 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| 2025 | 0 | 8.67 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| 2024 | 1 | 9.00 | May 10, 2024 |
| 2023 | 0 | 7.67 | Apr 23, 2023 |
| 2022 | 0 | 6.00 | Jan 14, 2022 |
| 2021 | 0 | 7.00 | Nov 3, 2021 |
| 2020 | 0 | 6.00 | Sep 27, 2020 |
| 2019 | 0 | 5.00 | Jan 4, 2019 |
| 2018 | 0 | 6.00 | Mar 18, 2018 |
| 2017 | 0 | 8.00 | Sep 7, 2017 |
| 2016 | 0 | 7.00 | Mar 6, 2016 |
| 2015 | 0 | 8.00 | Mar 17, 2015 |
Local time 9 pm to 3 am is the span of a night. The night's Kp is the highest among the three hour windows overlapping those hours. A night is in range when that Kp reached the threshold the state needs, which comes from where the northern edge of the state sits in geomagnetic latitude. Cloud is not in the record, so in range means the aurora was in range, not that anyone saw it. Figures are NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center daily geomagnetic data from 1994 on.
The next three days
NOAA's three-hour Kp outlook. At its highest expected value, Kp 5.00 remains below the Kp 9 threshold Arizona requires.
| Day | Local window | Kp | In range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | 5 PM to 8 PM MST00-03UT | 3.00 | No |
| Oct 3 | 8 PM to 11 PM MST03-06UT | 3.33 | No |
| Oct 3 | 11 PM to 2 AM MST06-09UT | 4.33 | No |
| Oct 4 | 2 AM to 5 AM MST09-12UT | 5.00 | No |
| Oct 4 | 5 AM to 8 AM MST12-15UT | 4.00 | No |
| Oct 4 | 8 AM to 11 AM MST15-18UT | 3.67 | No |
| Oct 4 | 11 AM to 2 PM MST18-21UT | 4.67 | No |
| Oct 4 | 2 PM to 5 PM MST21-00UT | 3.00 | No |
| Oct 4 | 5 PM to 8 PM MST00-03UT | 3.33 | No |
| Oct 4 | 8 PM to 11 PM MST03-06UT | 4.33 | No |
| Oct 4 | 11 PM to 2 AM MST06-09UT | 3.33 | No |
| Oct 5 | 5 AM to 8 AM MST12-15UT | 2.67 | No |
| Oct 5 | 8 AM to 11 AM MST15-18UT | 1.67 | No |
| Oct 5 | 2 PM to 5 PM MST21-00UT | 3.00 | No |
| Oct 5 | 5 PM to 8 PM MST00-03UT | 3.33 | No |
| Oct 5 | 8 PM to 11 PM MST03-06UT | 3.67 | No |
| Oct 5 | 11 PM to 2 AM MST06-09UT | 3.00 | No |
| Oct 6 | 2 AM to 5 AM MST09-12UT | 3.00 | No |
| Oct 6 | 5 AM to 8 AM MST12-15UT | 2.33 | No |
| Oct 6 | 8 AM to 11 AM MST15-18UT | 2.00 | No |
| Oct 6 | 11 AM to 2 PM MST18-21UT | 2.00 | No |
| Oct 6 | 2 PM to 5 PM MST21-00UT | 1.67 | No |
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center three-day forecast, issued 2026 Oct 04 1230 UTC.
The next 27 days
No day in the 27 day outlook from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center reaches Kp 9.
This Kp outlook is issued by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center at 2026 Sep 28 0221 UTC.
Watching from Arizona
- The aurora seldom appears overhead in Arizona; look at the northern horizon instead.
- Away from town lights, allow 20 minutes for your eyes to adjust.
- The aurora is most active from 10pm to 2am local, near magnetic midnight.
- A phone exposure of 3-5 seconds picks up color the eye cannot; a grey glow can photograph green.
Compare every state, ranked right now
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center produces the Kp readings and aurora forecasts on this page. As US government works, they are not subject to copyright under 17 U.S.C. 105; this notice is the notice required by 17 U.S.C. 403. Mention of the center does not imply endorsement or affiliation; for attribution, see Data sources and attribution.