El Niño and California winters

In Monterey, December through February precipitation averaged 14.47 inches during the 7 winters since 1950 that were strong El Niños, compared with 9.10 inches in other winters. 7 of the 7 strong winters finished above that other-winter average. Season snowfall at Tahoe City averaged 187.7 inches during the 7 winters since 1950 that were strong El Niños, compared with 180.7 inches in other winters; 4 of the 7 strong winters finished above that other-winter average. In Monterey, the winter temperature difference between strong El Niño winters and other winters was within half a degree Fahrenheit.

El Niño 2026-27 tracker

El Niño winter precipitation in California

Each city row shows the average December through February precipitation in strong El Niño winters, the average in all other winters, the change, and how many strong winters finished above the other-winter average.
City	Strong average	Other average	Change	Above
Bakersfield	4.19 in	2.86 in	+47%	6 of 7
Eureka	22.94 in	18.73 in	+22%	4 of 7
Fresno	7.60 in	5.40 in	+41%	6 of 7
Los Angeles	10.31 in	7.10 in	+45%	5 of 7
Monterey	14.47 in	9.10 in	+59%	7 of 7
Oakland	12.51 in	9.59 in	+30%	3 of 4
Oxnard	12.62 in	7.33 in	+72%	4 of 6
Palm Springs	3.40 in	2.58 in	+32%	5 of 7
Redding	24.37 in	16.34 in	+49%	3 of 3
Riverside	7.03 in	5.11 in	+37%	5 of 7
Sacramento	12.20 in	9.69 in	+26%	4 of 7
San Diego	6.99 in	5.06 in	+38%	5 of 7
San Francisco	15.85 in	11.11 in	+43%	5 of 7
San Jose	10.96 in	7.30 in	+50%	5 of 7
San Luis Obispo	18.01 in	11.91 in	+51%	5 of 7
Santa Barbara	12.62 in	9.31 in	+35%	4 of 6
Santa Rosa	22.09 in	17.31 in	+28%	5 of 7
Tahoe City	16.76 in	17.29 in	-3%	3 of 7

Station figures come from GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); strong winters are classified from CPC's RONI; winters cover 1950-51 through 2025-26.

El Niño snowfall in California

Each city row shows the average season snowfall in strong El Niño winters, the average in all other winters, the change, and how many strong winters finished above the other-winter average.
City	Strong average	Other average	Change	Above
Tahoe City	187.7 in	180.7 in	+4%	4 of 7

For Bakersfield, Eureka, Fresno, Los Angeles, Monterey, Oakland, Oxnard, Palm Springs, Riverside, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Santa Rosa, snowfall in other winters averages less than 2 inches, which is too low for a comparison.

El Niño winter temperature in California

Each city row shows the December through February mean temperature in strong El Niño winters, the mean in all other winters, and the difference.
City	Strong average	Other average	Difference (F)
Bakersfield	49.2°F	50.1°F	-0.9°F
Eureka	49.8°F	48.2°F	+1.6°F
Fresno	47.4°F	48.4°F	-1.0°F
Los Angeles	57.5°F	57.3°F	+0.2°F
Monterey	52.6°F	52.4°F	+0.3°F
Oakland	50.3°F	50.6°F	-0.3°F
Oxnard	56.3°F	55.6°F	+0.6°F
Palm Springs	57.2°F	58.2°F	-1.1°F
Redding	47.9°F	47.7°F	+0.2°F
Riverside	54.9°F	55.0°F	0.0°F
Sacramento	47.3°F	47.9°F	-0.6°F
San Diego	58.3°F	57.8°F	+0.6°F
San Francisco	50.6°F	51.0°F	-0.4°F
San Jose	51.1°F	51.3°F	-0.2°F
San Luis Obispo	53.5°F	53.5°F	0.0°F
Santa Barbara	53.9°F	52.9°F	+1.0°F
Santa Rosa	48.8°F	48.6°F	+0.3°F
Tahoe City	30.3°F	30.6°F	-0.4°F

Strong El Niño winters in California, winter by winter

For each city, the table shows December through February precipitation in each strong El Niño winter and the other-winter average for scale; the strong winters often disagreed.
City	1957-58	1965-66	1972-73	1982-83	1991-92	1997-98	2015-16	Other average
Bakersfield	3.51	3.44	3.22	4.04	4.75	7.66	2.71	2.86
Eureka	25.08	17.78	17.75	27.96	10.16	32.11	29.71	18.73
Fresno	8.05	2.80	7.01	10.43	7.89	9.30	7.73	5.40
Los Angeles	9.85	5.49	9.91	11.56	9.17	21.44	4.76	7.10
Monterey	13.07	9.76	10.82	16.02	12.00	28.21	11.41	9.10
Oakland	16.67	7.90	15.83				9.63	9.59
Oxnard	12.59	5.72	12.34	14.33		26.92	3.83	7.33
Palm Springs	3.14	3.11	2.00	3.85	4.30	5.08	2.30	2.58
Redding					18.18	33.12	21.81	16.34
Riverside	6.32	5.10	6.06	6.35	6.03	15.86	3.49	5.11
Sacramento	15.59	5.91	14.41	13.74	8.46	19.26	8.02	9.69
San Diego	5.15	8.75	4.93	7.40	6.85	11.68	4.15	5.06
San Francisco	18.36	10.90	17.55	17.46	11.18	25.73	9.80	11.11
San Jose	11.07	5.37	12.28	13.74	10.76	16.89	6.63	7.30
San Luis Obispo	16.98	6.20	25.51	25.56	17.76	26.54	7.54	11.91
Santa Barbara	14.40	6.26	15.33	18.68	14.46		6.56	9.31
Santa Rosa	23.12	15.67	27.67	21.83	14.28	33.43	18.62	17.31
Tahoe City	19.00	10.84	15.87	21.33	7.65	26.57	16.09	17.29

Station figures come from GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); strong winters are classified from CPC's RONI; winters cover 1950-51 through 2025-26.

White Christmas odds during El Niño years, California

The share of Christmas mornings with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, comparing strong El Niño years with all other years, shown only for cities where it ever happens.
City	Strong years	Other years
Tahoe City	100%	78%

White Christmas odds by city

Under 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright attaches to the government-produced figures on this page, including reports, alerts, station observations, and normals, which were created by the National Weather Service and other NOAA offices. The notice that 17 U.S.C. 403 requires appears in this sentence. It does not imply endorsement by or affiliation with those agencies. See: Data sources and attribution.

How these figures work

Strong El Niño winters here are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, classified by the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. Each city is compared against its own station record: those strong winters against every other winter since 1950. A city appears after its station reports 3 or more strong winters and 10 or more other winters.